Goldman Sachs unveiled a "Long/Short AI-Resilient Software Basket"

Long/Short AI-Resilient Software Basket — long infrastructure and security, short seat-based application software vulnerable to automation.

The core idea: AI strengthens the rails. It pressures the seats.

Here’s the breakdown 👇

$MSFT — Owns the Stack

Azure AI workloads accelerating while Copilot seats hit 15M. $37.5B in quarterly CapEx expanding data centers tied to OpenAI and Anthropic demand. GitHub Copilot subscribers up 75%, embedding AI directly into developer workflows. Control over compute + apps = leverage at every layer. Hard to bypass the hyperscaler running the models.

$ORCL — AI Utility Provider

$523B in RPO after multi-year AI training deals. 400MW of new capacity delivered in one quarter, plus 96,000 NVIDIA GB200 units deployed. Sovereign AI contracts add geopolitical stickiness. Database + training clusters create switching friction. Compute scarcity works in Oracle’s favor.

$PANW — Security Tax on AI

Next-Gen Security ARR at $5.85B. Prisma AIRS adoption doubled sequentially as enterprises fight “shadow AI.” NVIDIA partnerships embed security into AI factories directly. Operating margin above 30%. Every AI workload expands the attack surface. PANW collects a toll on protection.

$CRWD — Data Moat Compounds

Net new ARR jumped 73% YoY to $265M. Charlotte AI usage up 85% sequentially. FedRAMP authorization deepens government stickiness. $1.3B ARR now from cloud, identity, SIEM modules. AI threats escalate. Falcon becomes system of record for endpoint telemetry.

$NET — Edge Inference Rail

Workers AI inference requests up 4,000% YoY. Enterprise clients spending >$100K grew 23%. Low-latency architecture pushes AI inference closer to users. Connectivity Cloud monetizes data movement between models and endpoints. Participation in AI growth without hyperscale CapEx burden.

Now the other side.

$CRM — Cannibalization Risk

Agentforce ARR up 114%. Yet $2 per AI conversation competes with $100–$300 monthly seats. If agents reduce SDR and admin headcount, seat-based revenue compresses. Stock down 27% YTD. Pricing transition from subscription to consumption introduces volatility.

$MNDY — Workflow Automation Pressure

Net Dollar Retention slipped to 110%. AI agents now auto-create and update tasks from prompts. Manual dashboards look redundant. Long-term targets reset lower despite strong cash flow. User-based expansion model faces structural ceiling.

$DOCU — Contracts Go Native

Subscription revenue at $801M with NDR stuck near 102%. LLMs ingest full contract repositories without proprietary tools. Gross margin eased to 79.2%. Digital signature becomes feature, not moat. Intelligent Agreement Management faces commoditization.

$DUOL — Translation Disruption

DAU growth slowed to 30% from 36%. Bookings up 23% but ARPU skewed toward lower-monetizing international base. OS-level translation from Apple and Google reduces urgency to learn languages. CFO departure adds uncertainty during strategic pivot.

$ACN — Billable Hours Under Pressure

60% of engagements now fixed-price. AI revenue at $1.1B vs $18.7B total. Coding copilots enable clients to internalize dev work once outsourced. Labor arbitrage advantage weakens. Productivity gains risk becoming client savings, not consultant margins.