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JUST IN: On March 31, the Iran war fractured into three separate conflicts that have nothing to do with Iran’s military.
France denied overflight for US weapons shipments to Israel. Spain closed its entire airspace and bases. Italy refused Sigonella, the Mediterranean’s most critical staging facility. Trump called France “VERY UNHELPFUL” and told NATO to “build up some delayed courage.” The alliance that held through Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine cracked over Iran. Not because the mission failed. Because the allies decided it was not their mission. The first fracture is NATO.
Israel struck a five-vehicle IRGC-Hezbollah convoy in Jnah, Beirut, killing 11 including a high-ranking commander. Four IDF soldiers died in southern Lebanon. Defense Minister Katz announced that every building in every village south of the Litani River will be destroyed using the Rafah model, and 600,000 displaced Lebanese will be barred from returning until northern Israel is secure. This is not a buffer zone. This is the erasure of 8 to 10 percent of a sovereign nation’s territory, ordered by a defence minister on live television, while the US president simultaneously says America is leaving the region. The second fracture is Lebanon.
Eighteen A-10 Warthog close air support aircraft arrived at RAF Fairford and Lakenheath for Operation Epic Fury. The A-10 was designed in 1972 to destroy Soviet tanks in the Fulda Gap. It flies low. It flies slow. It kills things on the ground. It is the one aircraft in the American arsenal that has no function in a standoff air campaign. Its deployment means someone at the Pentagon is planning for the kind of close-in, low-altitude ground engagement that every podium statement says is not happening. Hegseth says no ground war. Trump says leaving in two weeks. And 18 tank killers just crossed the Atlantic. The aircraft contradicts the rhetoric. The third fracture is the strategy itself.
Meanwhile, Araghchi confirmed message exchanges with the US through Witkoff but denied negotiations, saying Iran’s conditions remain “clear” and no response has been given to the 15-point plan. Messages are flowing. Deals are not. The backchannel exists but produces nothing actionable before the April 6 deadline. Europe is blocking the logistics. Lebanon is absorbing the consequences. And the ground-attack aircraft are arriving at the same airbases whose host nations just denied overflight for the weapons those aircraft would deliver.
Europe’s LNG strategy reveals the depth of the fracture. US liquefied natural gas now supplies 55 to 58 percent of European imports, up from 21 percent in 2021. Qatar’s force majeure on Ras Laffan removed 9 percent of EU supply. Norway has confirmed zero spare capacity. Eleven cargoes have been diverted from Europe to Asia. Analysts warn gas prices could triple to 155 euros per megawatt-hour if the disruption continues past June. Trump told Europe to fend for itself on Hormuz while Europe’s energy survival depends on American fuel shipped through sea lanes America says it will no longer protect.
The conventional war is won. Iran’s navy is destroyed. Its air force is grounded. Its launchers are 90 percent degraded. But the three wars it generated, the fracture of NATO, the occupation of southern Lebanon, and the collapse of the global energy guarantee, are just beginning.
March 31 was not a day in the Iran war. It was the day the Iran war ended and three new wars started.