Bangladesh imports 95 percent of its petroleum. Its universities closed early. Rolling blackouts run five hours. Fertiliser plants have shut. LNG that cost $10 per million BTU before the war now costs $23 to $28 when cargoes can be found at all. The Strait of Hormuz closed five weeks ago and Bangladesh, a country of 170 million people, is running on fumes because the molecule that powered its economy passed through a 34-kilometre waterway that a sanctioned military organisation now operates as a toll booth.

Pakistan announced a four-day work week. Half the government workforce was sent home. Schools closed for two weeks. Fuel allocations were cut 50 percent. Textile mills in Faisalabad and Gazipur, the primary source of foreign currency, face rolling blackouts and gas rationing. The kilns that fire the ceramics industry require constant heat that only natural gas provides. When the gas stops, the production line dies. Workers are losing paychecks because a strait they have never seen is controlled by an organisation whose name most of them do not know.

Sri Lanka reactivated the QR fuel pass from its 2022 crisis within 48 hours of the blockade. Cars get 15 litres per week. Motorcycles get five. Military personnel escort station attendants who scan the codes. Wednesdays became public holidays for schools and state institutions to cut commuting. The government says current shipments cover demand until the end of April. After that, nothing is guaranteed. The country that collapsed two years ago is rationing again because the molecule that cooks its food and moves its goods transits the same waterway as the molecule that funds the missiles.

The Philippines declared a State of National Energy Emergency on March 24, the first country to do so. Thailand told citizens to raise thermostats and ditch jackets. Myanmar stationed soldiers at depots. The Maldives requested fuel assistance from India. Nepal’s electricity imports from India were cut to 16 hours a day because India itself is rationing, having suspended commercial LPG and imposed a 25-day booking limit on household cylinders. Slovenia became the first EU country to impose fuel rationing. Japan released 80 million barrels from reserves.

The United Nations estimates oil prices have risen 45 percent, gas 55 percent, and fertiliser 35 percent since late February. Regional inflation across developing Asia could reach 4.6 percent in 2026, up from 3.5 percent. ESCAP warns growth could slow to 4 percent from 4.6 percent. The deeper risk is not GDP. It is the planting season. Urea prices are up 30 to 50 percent. Fertiliser that should be in the ground for kharif planting is stuck in holds that cannot transit the strait. The food crisis that follows an energy crisis follows a shipping crisis follows a military crisis at a chokepoint that handles one fifth of global oil.

Russia is the winner. Indian crude imports from Russia surged 90 percent in March to 1.5 million barrels per day under US waivers. China sits on 1.2 to 1.4 billion barrels of reserves, banned refined fuel exports, and resold LNG at a profit. Neither is providing aid. Both are providing barrels at a price. The distinction matters to the worker in Gazipur whose factory went dark because his government cannot afford the premium the strait’s closure created.

The war is in Iran. The casualties are in Asia.