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Twenty-one hours. The highest-level face-to-face meeting between the United States and Iran since 1979. The first direct contact between an American vice president and Iranian senior leadership in 47 years. And it ended before dawn on April 12 with JD Vance standing at a podium in the Serena Hotel saying: “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America.”

The core impasse was nuclear. Vance said the US could not get “an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon.” He acknowledged Iran’s enrichment facilities had been destroyed during Operation Epic Fury. But the US wanted a long-term commitment of intent. Iran refused. Ghalibaf said the US must “decide whether they can earn our trust or not.”

Vance left a “final and best offer” on the table. He spoke to Trump “a half dozen times, a dozen times” during the 21 hours. He boarded Air Force Two and flew to Ramstein.

And then Trump posted.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” He ordered interdiction of every vessel that paid a toll to Iran. He announced the destruction of Iranian mines. He warned that any Iranian who fires will be “BLOWN TO HELL.” He closed with: “We are fully LOCKED AND LOADED.”

Four days ago, Trump called the Hormuz toll “a beautiful thing” and proposed a “joint venture.” Three days ago, he reversed and posted “they better stop now.” Two days ago, Vance boarded Air Force Two saying he would extend “the open hand” if Iran negotiated in good faith. Today, Trump announced a naval blockade of a strait the United States has spent six weeks trying to open.

The United States is now blockading the Strait of Hormuz to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is imposing a blockade on Iran’s blockade. The country that demanded free passage is now restricting all passage. The stated goal is to end the toll system by interdicting every ship that paid it. This means seizing vessels belonging to China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan, the five nations Iran granted special transit approval to during the war. The same Pakistan that hosted the peace talks that collapsed hours ago. The same China that brokered the ceasefire. The same India that imports 65 percent of its helium from Qatar’s destroyed Ras Laffan complex. Every toll-paying nation is now a target of the blockade those tolls were supposed to prevent.

The ceasefire expires April 22. Ten days. The mines are still drifting. The 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium is still in Iranian hands. China is preparing MANPADs for delivery. Hezbollah is still firing rockets. And the two delegations that sat across from each other for 21 hours left holding the same documents they arrived with.

The talks did not fail because they were badly conducted. They failed because the distance between “we will never give up nuclear sovereignty” and “we need a permanent commitment to never seek nuclear weapons” is not a negotiating gap. It is a civilizational divide. And no hotel in Islamabad, no matter how well guarded, is large enough to hold both positions in the same room.

Apr 12
at
1:27 PM
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