JUST IN: Brent crude futures are bid at approximately 113 dollars per barrel on May 5 2026, down roughly one percent on the session. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to 100 dollars on May 1 citing the Hormuz impasse.

Strait of Hormuz throughput is running at approximately five percent of pre-crisis normal per Kpler and TankerTrackers, sixty-six days into the restriction.

Physical Brent CFDs for prompt cargoes trade at a 3.50 to 4.50 dollar premium over futures per Reuters physical market assessments. Dubai and Oman cargoes assessed by Platts trade at a 4.20 to 4.80 dollar premium. Iranian Heavy is offered at an 8 to 10 dollar discount to Dubai because the customs enforcement architecture has paralysed its export channel. These spreads have narrowed from March and April peaks of 20 to 38 dollars.

This is the spread that survived Project Freedom optimism. This is the spread that prices the architecture.

Chevron’s chief executive warned at Milken that physical shortages are beginning to appear, first in Asia, on a scale comparable to the 1970s.

Brent futures price the political clock. Physical cargoes price the architecture.

The Strait of Hormuz has now produced a price.

The price is the spread.