Election Day Predictions:

Mamdani wins, but by less than 24 points - Kalshi odds: 66% - Personal odds: 90%

Spanberger wins by at least 8 points - Kalshi odds: 78% - Personal odds: 85%

Sherrill either loses or wins by less than 6 points - Kalshi odds: 52% - Personal odds: 80%

Jay Jones loses - Kalshi odds: 55% - Personal odds: 66%

D66 and PVV tie in seats - Kalshi Implied Odds: 60% - Personal Odds: 90% (Oops this already happened)

Let’s see how dumb I look tomorrow.