3B15 – Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (NFBC ADP – 222)

Over the first half of last season, Paredes was on a winning path in runs (43), home runs (17), and RBI (46) over 295 at-bats. He battled a hamstring issue in mid-June, and his batting average (.254) came in close to the league average. After the All-Star break, he landed on the injured list for all but eight games due to another hamstring issue. Paredes went 21-for-83 over his final 22 games with a .253 batting average, 10 runs, three home runs, and seven RBIs.

His strikeout rate (17.4%) matched his career average while continuing to have a favorable walk rate (11.4%). His contact batting average (.318) was a four-year high, but it has a low ceiling due to his tendency to pop up on many at-bats (infield fly rate – 18.3% in his career), driven by his desire to pull the ball (57.6% in 2025 – 53.7% in his career).

His average hit rate (1.802) supports 30+ home runs with over 550 at-bats, and Paredes reached that level in 2023 (31 home runs and 98 RBIs over 492 at-bats). He finished last year with a career-high launch angle (23.0).

Paredes doesn’t move the needle with his exit velocity (87.4), barrel rate (6.3%), or hard-hit rate (33.6%). Over the past four seasons, he barreled 79 balls but still smashed 90 home runs. The Astros gave him 97.4% of his at-bats, hitting between first and third in the batting order in 2025.

Fantasy Outlook: At this point, Paredes projects as a dirty power player (low average with an edge in home runs) despite making much more contact than the typical swing-and-miss home run hitter. In 2023 and 2024, he came to the plate with over 400 runners on base (410 and 401), while delivering favorable RBI rates (17.1% and 16.2%). Hitting one off from a healthier Jordan Alvarez invites better production in either runs or RBIs.

I view Paredes as a neutral three-category player, with home runs driving his ceiling. His batting average has a chance to be neutral, while being dead in the water in stealing bases. He should outperform his early ADP.