OF33 – Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (NFBC ADP – 164)

Kwam comes off his best rating (72nd) in FPGscore (0.44) for hitters due to his highest combination (32) of home runs and steals. His contact batting average (.301) caps his batting average (not higher than .326 over the past three years). His bump in home runs over the past two seasons isn’t supported by his low average hit rate (1.376).

He remains challenging to strikeout (8.7%), but Kwan took fewer walks (7.9% - 9.8% in 2024). His RBI rate (16.3%) was the best of his career, but he came to the plate with only 277 runners on base. Kwan failed to hit a home run off a left-handed pitcher (.246/17/0/12/7 over 203 at-bats).

His bat surprised in overall production in April (.322/18/4/15/4 over 118 at-bats). Over his final 403 at-bats, Kwan hit .248 with 52 runs, six home runs, 36 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases, showing a weaker fantasy asset.

He had no change in his exit velocity (86.2), with a dinky barrel rate (1.9%) and hard-hit rate (19.3%). Over the past two seasons, Kwan delivered 22 barrels and 25 home runs. His bump in power came from a higher launch angle (15.6%) despite a lower flyball rate (36.4%) and HR/FB rate (5.4%).

Fantasy Outlook: For the fantasy drafters expecting Kwan to make a jump to a 15/25 player, his hitting metrics suggest he has a better chance of regression in home runs than a rise in power. His batting average also has a low ceiling due to his contact batting average. Based on my expectations, Kwan is priced too high this year.