SP Graham Ashcraft, CIN
Ashcraft showed growth in 2021 between High A and AA, leading to an 11-4 record with a 3.00 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 111 innings. He struggled in 2022 at AAA (59 baserunners over 35.1 innings with 35 strikeouts) but somehow allowed only nine runs.
His arm fared better than expected over his first four starts (3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 23.2 innings) in Cincinnati. The league caught up to him over his next four outings (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and four home runs over 20 innings). Ashcraft was at least serviceable over his eight starts (3.47 ERA) in July and August despite batters hitting .286 against him. His season ended with three consecutive losses (12.00 ERA and seven strikeouts over 12 innings).
Last year, Ashcraft pitched well for the Reds over six starts (2.00 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 36.0 innings). Unfortunately, he crushed anyone believing in his next eight outings (47 runs, 73 baserunners, 11 home runs, and 14 walks over 33.0 innings). Somehow, his arm offered winning stats over his final 76.2 innings (2.58 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, .228 BAA, and 59 strikeouts). A toe injury that required surgery put him on the injured list over the final 26 games.
His average fastball (96.5) was about a half mph lower than his rookie season, but batters had too much success vs. his sinker (.275 BAA). Ashcraft did offer a winning slider (.221 BAA – 12 home runs). He threw his cutter (.290 BAA and 10 home runs) as his top usage pitch (52.9%).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite having a big fastball, Ashcraft has a meager strikeout rate (6.5) over his first 250.2 innings in the majors. He struggled to get righties out (.287 with 12 home runs and 31 walks over 286 at-bats). Reading between the lines, there is a better arm, especially if Ashcraft can find a swing-and-miss pitch with a rebound in his command. His ADP (394) falls in the gamble category in deep formats. Cincinnati should give him the first shot at their fifth starting job. He is worth a watch in spring training just in case something changes in his approach to batters.
