C Yainer Diaz, HOU (NFBC ADP – 57.7)

In 2023, Diaz made the Astros out of spring training, but they gave him minimal at-bats (62) over the first two months (.226/9/2/5). He started to hit his way into the lineup in June, leading to a productive edge at catcher (.294 over 42 runs, 21 home runs, and 55 RBIs over his final 293 at-bats) for the rest of the year.

Despite a significant uptick in at-bats (330) from the previous season, Diaz had a sharp decline in his run rate (35 – 46 % in 2023) and his HR/FB rate (10.6 – 17.7% in 2023). He has a rising groundball rate (54.7) and a fading fly-ball rate (28.0). As a result, his fantasyanalyst.substack… (1.474) came in well below his success in his rookie season (1.910). When putting the ball in play, Diaz posted a higher fantasyanalyst.substack… (.366 – .356 in 2023). He lowered his strikeout rate (17.3) while remaining a free swinger (3.9% walk rate).

Diaz improved last season vs. left-handed pitchers (.306/22/6/25 over 157 at-bats) while being a much better player at home (.337/45/10/46 over 300 at-bats). After a dull May (.200 over 85 at-bats with five runs and 10 RBIs), he hit over .300 in each of the final four months (.363, .337, .304, and .303). His best production came from June through August (.331 with 42 runs, 13 home runs, and 51 RBIs over 293 at-bats). His exit velocity (92.2 – 21st) and hard-hit rate (48.7 – 27th) graded well.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on swing path, Diaz doesn’t project to be an impact power hitter at this point of his career. The Astros gave him 75 games at DH over the past two seasons, and he does offer insurance at first base. Houston should give him most of his playing time in 2025 between four and sixth in the batting order. Diaz profiles as an edge in batting average with neutral to positive success in runs, home runs, and RBIs. Last year, he ranked 54th in fantasyanalyst.substack… (0.93) for hitters. Diaz is the 36th batter drafted in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in early January. I like him and see the edge at catcher, but he must post a .280/80/25/90 season to pay off.