What might explain an acceleration in benchmarks? Mythos indeed seems to be ahead of trend on agentic coding. What could explain that? First, it might be a fluke. Given the uncertainties involved, a single data point will have a minimal effect on the best guess trend. Anthropic was also lagging on ECI before, so may have simply caught up. Second, Anthropic might have increased training compute an unusually large amount in this round of training. This brings future capabilities into the present, but they won’t be able to continue this rate of increase. (Some evidence is that Mythos costs about 5x more, suggesting the model is about 5 times larger.) Third, AI might be successfully learning general agentic skills that will result in superexponential progress on agentic benchmarks. If that’s the case, we should expect the acceleration to continue. Fourth, AI might be making Anthropic researchers so much more productive that they can now make progress three times as fast, which would make this the start of an alg…