Part two of why defections seldom end well…

When I wrote about Conservative defections to Reform a few weeks back it seems I was a little premature.

Since then former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi (who was sacked from the Sunak Government over a tax issue) has managed to overcome his lifelong aversion to Nigel Farage and his immigration policies, paving the way for Robert Jenrick to make a similar lurch to the right. Apparently Jenrick’s departure resulted in more champagne than tears in Tory ranks owing to his earlier denial that such a move was even on the cards. As one current Conservative whip explained to me “lying to your enemies is one thing in politics (unattractive though that is) but doing so to your friends, colleagues, supporters and voters raises pretty serious questions for both Jenrick and his new mate Nigel.”   

If there was a winner in this week’s psychodrama it was almost certainly Kemi Badenoch. Blowing up Jenrick with his own grenade would have been a sweet moment behind the scenes, reassuring her loyal parliamentary team at the same time as reminding the rest of us that poor Robert can’t even choreograph a decent defection without cocking it up. Why Farage wants to populate his team with a mixture of failed or disgruntled Conservatives is beyond me. If they do for his team what they did for ours then their Chief Whip Lee Anderson will be in for a busy few months ahead. The common thread that links this cohort so far is a failure to cope with the reality that politics (like so many professions) is an exercise in compromise. And this is a problem for Farage, who is not known for his flexibility or tolerance either. For the time being he is playing with a chemistry set of seemingly inert materials but which, if gently heated, could soon become explosive. Every party tolerates a lone wolf or two as they enable them to boast about their broad-church credentials. But a pack of them? I remember in all too much detail conversations with Jenrick, Kruger, Jenkyns and others about the importance of pulling in the same direction; or to use a frequent “Goveism” not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Most colleagues got this, trudging despondently through the division lobbies, accepting that the PM had to make the big calls and that in many cases the choice before us was as good as it was ever likely to get. But idealogues don’t always think like that. Their solutions always require some intellectual purity that in many cases only they subscribe to and upon which the rest of Parliament has some pretty strong views too. Not all defectors can turn to ideology to explain their position either. Some are simply opportunists, responding to vague promises of future recognition, or a route back into a career that they resent being cut short by an ungrateful public. If history tells us anything it is that neither category will remain supine indefinitely.     

Add to this the reality of current polling. At a glance it looks like Reform’s steady rise through 2024/25 has flattened off, as has the Conservatives near identical downward trend. Both now proceed along parallel lines, separated by roughly 8-12 points depending on your favoured polling company. Given the large number of seats held by only slender majorities, even a two-point shift results in a disproportionate change in the political landscape, one in which Reform is nowhere near able to form an overall majority. In that scenario the choice is stark. Form an allegiance with the Conservatives (good luck with that..) or stand back and watch as Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens link arms in a left-of-centre attempt at survival. Neither option fills me with hope that a much-needed period of stability is heading our way. In Wales, a Plaid Cymru led Welsh Government in May seems certain, for the first time ever, as Labour deserters gravitate towards the nearest fit for them at the same time as Conservative centrists deploy the same tactics in order to thwart Reform.  

Much has been written about the role of the Whips in managing all this. In government the tools and capital at the Chief Whip’s disposal erode at a terrifying rate, never to be replenished. Such a large majority makes that even more of a challenge as the reality dawns for more and more colleagues that their ambitions for a Ministerial role, public honour, or just a long steady career slip quickly from their grasp. In opposition the capital reserves at the Opposition Whips disposal are even leaner, meaning the need for good old-fashioned loyalty should come as standard. It seems that with so much up for grabs in the politics of 2026, some core ingredients are more important than ever – in this case a whipping operation based on decency, for which the party leaders should expect (and tolerate) nothing less than honesty and integrity from their colleagues.