Here are the SA election numbers from the electoral commission as of 22nd of March.

Not Telegram.

Not your mate’s cousin who’s “connected” to the Hungarian royal family (real comment).

Not a bloke yelling from the front seat of a Camry.

35 seats Labor. 8 Libs. 4 Independents.

One Nation: zero.

There’s currently a parallel universe doing the rounds where One Nation has won four mystery seats that neither the candidates nor the electoral commission have managed to locate.

We'll continue to monitor.

Now, One Nation pulled 21% of the primary vote. That’s the headline they’re clinging to.

But our system doesn’t reward "had a gutful". It rewards distribution.

You can rack up votes across the state, but if they’re thin, scattered, and don’t get you over the line in actual seats… you get exactly what we saw last night.

Nothing.

That 21% looks impressive on a pie chart. On the ground, it translated into zero seats. That tells you everything about how shallow and inefficient that support is. Every village has its...

This isn’t a wave building power. It’s a protest vote sprayed across the map with nowhere to land.

Interestingly, they don't seem to have come from Labor voters.

In 2022, Labor pulled 39.97% primary, off a +7.18% swing. Fast forward to now, and they’ve barely moved. They’ve held onto the bulk of that gain and, their base.

So the idea that One Nation is siphoning off Labor voters doesn’t stack up.

What actually happened is much simpler.

Liberal vote softened. One Nation spiked. Same pool of voters, now divided between centre-right and further-right.

Net result is more noise. Less power.

So structurally, nothing revolutionary has occurred. About 140,000 conservative voters shifted further right, and in doing so, reduced their own side’s ability to win seats. That’s the irony.

The Liberal Party (not just in SA) has got to figure out how to win those voters back and how to appeal to the centre again.

Because until they do, what we saw lastnight becomes the baseline.