The S&P 500 broke below its 200 day SMA on March 29th causing many traders to believe we are moving into a bear market. It is true that this technical has preceded all four of the S&Ps previous bear markets. It has also appeared another 153 times when no bear market followed suggesting the indicator is correct 2.6% of the time and wrong 97.4% of the time. Of course it could develop into a death cross, a portent of doom that is actually a better buying signal than the golden cross correctly predicting a 12 month increase in market price 73% of the time. Everytime I review technical analysis with empirical data I get the same results and am yet to find a combination of indicators that can make a profit.