Greggs $GRG.L H1 2026 Earnings: Quick Bites 🥐📈

1️⃣ Total Growth is Stabilizing

Top-line sales climbed 7.2%, with company-managed Like-For-Like (LFL) sales up 2.1% and franchised LFL up 1.3%.

The rest is being driven by estate expansion and B2B partnerships. More importantly, they are still growing overall volumes and taking market share in a challenging environment, their share of visits is up 0.3 p.p. to 8.7% over the last 12 months.

2️⃣ Margins Expanding & Costs Controlled

Operating profit jumped to £86.5M (up from £70.4M in H1 '25), with pre-tax profit hitting £76.0M. This strong year-over-year improvement was aided by a soft prior-year comp, but also driven by cost control and lower-than-expected inflation. H1 cost inflation landed at just 2.2%, which is now the expectation for the full year. Note: “We will see a step-up in operating costs in H2 as the new Derby site finally goes live.”

3️⃣ Peak Capex is Officially Behind Us

Capital expenditure plummeted in H1 to £77.8M (down from £172.1M last year) following the substantial completion of the Derby distribution center and a smaller number of shop refits. They’ve now reduced the FY 2026 Capex forecast from £200M down to ~£180M (a massive drop from £287.5M in 2025). The heavy lifting on the investment cycle is done.

4️⃣ Loyalty is Real

The Greggs App is proving to be a moat. It is now scanned in 31.0% of company-managed transactions (up from 25.7% last half-year). The "buy 9 get 1 free" model is driving visit frequency, and they are successfully utilizing app-led promos, like double stamps on daily bakes, to drive actual profitable growth.

Bottom line on this print... that’s a beauty.