From the Warrior Met Coal update:

"An investment at these levels is less of a play on operational execution and more of a directional gamble on coal prices."

Blue Creek will produce at costs 25% below legacy operations. Development capex drops from $450M+ to $140-150M annually. The company's lowest-ever cash cost was $92.31 per metric ton. The operational setup is as good as it gets for a met coal producer.

None of that matters if met coal prices stay flat. At ~$92/share, the stock's return profile is almost entirely a function of commodity prices — and commodity price forecasting is "notoriously difficult."

Full deep dive: