The market took $LNG from $284 to $265 after the ceasefire headline, pricing in Scenario A (clean peace).

But the last 5 days of evidence all point to Scenario B (frozen conflict): Hormuz transit is still below 10% of pre-war levels, Iran published a navigation chart implying mines are still in the main shipping lane, Islamabad talks have 7 out of 10 conditions unresolved, Israel's "Operation Eternal Darkness" killed 254 people and poisoned the ceasefire atmosphere, two US destroyers transited the strait to sweep mines and build an "alternative lane" while Iran denied any US vessel crossed, and the White House flatly rejected Iran's claim that asset unfreezing was agreed.

This doesn't look like peace. This looks like a toll booth model frozen conflict taking shape.

For LNG, frozen conflict is actually more bullish than clean peace: JKM stabilizes in the $14-18 range, the marketing book earns an extra $1.0-1.5B/year vs consensus, but analysts don't know how to model "half-open half-closed strait" so they're still using the pre-war $7.49/MMBtu assumption.

At $265, the stock trades at just 9.6x EV/EBITDA on frozen conflict EBITDA of $8.1B, 9.4x on probability-weighted. Both below mid-cycle. Even if 100% clean peace materializes, the price target is $263, basically flat to current, meaning downside is near zero. Probability-weighted PT is $328-367, implying 23-38% upside.

April 21 ceasefire expiry is the hard catalyst: if it doesn't renew, JKM re-spikes instantly to $22+; if it does renew, frozen conflict continues but the market will eventually realize this isn't peace and start repricing marketing revenue higher. Bottom line: the market is pricing off headlines, reality points in a completely different direction, and $265 happens to be exactly the entry zone we need.