Yesterday, wrote:
“Even before this disastrous debate, Biden was chronically behind in the polls…”
I’m not entirely sure about that, but this next bit is both true and misleading at the same time:
“…my instinct here is that the betting markets are right, and that Trump is now the clear favorite to win the presidency this fall.”
Well, yes he is. And I do believe that the exchange market is a more accurate barometer than any poll. In the image below, Trump is 1.72/1.73 (back/lay). This equates to an approximate 58% chance of winning if the election were held today. But it isn’t.
And even if it were, there are so many variables in play that the only thing of any certainty is that the market below will be unrecognisable the day before the election.
That said, Noah’s main point—that we’d all better start thinking about the real possibility of a second Trump administration—is sound advice. But that does not equate to resigning ourselves to such an awful fate. US citizen or otherwise, everyone with a vestige of human decency needs to get proactive in any way they can think of to ensure the free and fair election of the Democratic candidate.
