I have been working on this paper regarding the long-term future of the Russian oil industry for several months.

During this period, the oil market has moved through several distinct phases. At one point, the industry faced tightening sanctions, a market surplus, and oil prices dipping below $40/bbl. This led to questions about whether Russian production would collapse even without additional external pressure, as prices threatened to fall below break-even levels.

More recently, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed prices into triple digits. With some sanctions lifted and others ignored, there are now hopes that Russia could act as a swing producer, increasing production to offset the deficit created by the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

While my research focuses on the 2035 and 2040 horizons rather than the immediate landscape of July 2026, I believe you will find the answers to these current questions within the text.

In this 25-page long-read, I describe the current state of the Russian oil industry and the path that led it here—creating a structural "rut" for the next decade. I also analyze the challenges the sector faces and outline several possible scenarios for its future.

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