Despite stacking meaningful wins: a ~$17M contract on top of multiple EU deals (including a $20M+ Germany award), the stock has gone essentially nowhere. Meanwhile, GEO Group $GEO is up 20%+ in just a few weeks. The divergence is… notable.
Short interest is now sitting at multi-month highs, adding pressure to what already feels like a mispriced setup.
We estimate an immediate value gap of ~40%+ versus the current share price.
Feels less like a broken story, more like delayed recognition.
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