Markets sitting just ~2% below all-time highs feel remarkably complacent.

The only way to rationalize this is to believe energy prices will fall back to pre-war levels, which I find very unlikely.

This also ignores the second-order effects still ahead from logistical disruptions and shortages of key inputs.

Maybe it is a sign of age, but the disconnect from reality feels significant right now.

I could be wrong, but I chose to raise a meaningful amount of liquidity yesterday.

My latest macro presentation covers my current views across some portfolio positions, along with new ideas I have been exploring.

tavicosta.substack.com/…