We've beaten Trump before, we can beat him again--and we need to remember these things. Biden simply has to maintain his numbers since 2020 while Trump has to grow them beyond his 2020 vote share. Trump's anti-vaxx base has been dying of CV since 2020, so he may actually need to grow his numbers beyond what he had in 2020 to make up the difference. He will be consumed by a rolling series of trials that are going to bring out his worst emotional reactions. Economic sentiment of voters will improve between now and the election as the lag effect of consumer sentiment comes around. Don't get complacent about 2024, but there are more tailwinds than headwinds for Biden in the cumulative picture in my mind. Highlight the dangers a 2nd Trump presidency would bring, but don't lose sight of the strengths going for Biden--including incumbency--and the weaknesses that Trump has. Negative polarization runs modern politics and we have to make less than 100,000 voters in about 4-5 states dislike Trump enough to not vote for him. That's it. That's the whole mission.

If I were Biden and his team, I would make most of my campaigning be about the dangers of a 2nd Trump presidency. Remind voters that he tried to refuse leaving the WH in 2021 and would do so again if ever elected back to office--effectively ending democracy on the spot. Compare Trump to Elon--a decadently rich billionaire with serious mental health issues who refuses to listen to anybody and only wants things his way. Remind voters that Trump is a public opinion scam artist on abortion who flips--pretending to be unserious about it and then putting x3 SCOTUS justices on the bench who then take a 50+ year right away from women. Remind voters that Trump tried to start a war with Iran by publicly assassinating their top general who was a national hero. Remind voters that Trump wants to use the military against non-violent protests like he did at Lafayette Square and would do so again in a remake of Kent State. Remind voters that Trump is a 91-count-indicted criminal who cheats on his wife, cheats on his taxes, and cheats at elections. Just keep hammering home what a danger Trump is to the country and its body politic over and over and over again and use examples from Trump's first presidency and his own words against him. Do this, and the results will go our way.