Another big tell in the casualty counts are the Russian KIA:WIA ratios, which appear to be around 1:2 right now. By comparison, US casualty rates throughout GWOT were around 1:7-8. This is because we strapped insane amounts of personal body armor to every guy/gal outside the wire (x4 E-SAPI plates) and then kept our combat units dismounted for the most part save for insert/exfils in some cases (logistical convoys are the exception, but they're not combat units).

The point is: BMPs and T-72s are ATGM/IED-magnets, and if the Russian military spends most of its time relying on motorized armor for force protection, they will continue to see their guys get burnt alive inside of scrap vehicles at a rate of 2-8 guys per ATGM. That's where the rate of change comes from: multiple personnel kills per effective ATGM deployed. When you dismount your infantry they can't be effectively targeted by ATGMs, or certainly not as easily when they're all sitting inside of an APC. The enemy has to rely on using small arms fire to take out dispersed ground patrols, which gets a lot more dicey than firing off an ATGM and then dipping out. Bullets go both ways and artillery fire can be called in if within range. The biggest tactical error Russia is making right now is keeping a lot of their guys inside of armored vehicles that are more vulnerable than had the conscripts simply gotten out and patrolled instead of sitting inside of a BMP-2 or Tigr. You can survive bullet wounds taken on patrol. You *cannot* survive a catastrophic ATGM hit on an armored troop transport or an Mi-24 shootdown using MANPADs.