Yes, the IDF will have a rolling intelligence collection program based off of where it believes LH's missile firing sites in Lebanon are on any given day. The problem here is that many of these sites will be mobile, and although Lebanon is a small enough country to be able to track this kind of thing pretty well, electronic intelligence (ELINT) will be of limited value because unlike anti-missile defense systems that run continuous radar that can be passively detected by ELINT collection platforms, missilie-*firing* sites do not need any kind of continuous emission into the electro-magnetic spectrum that would be vulnerable to detection and geographic fixing. That leaves imagery intelligence (IMINT) via satellite/drone footage, human intelligence (HUMINT) via spies, and comms intelligence (COMINT) via radio traffic intercepts as the primary methods of tracking the mobile missile launch sites. All three of those can be spoofed a lot more easily than ELINT can, and so the IDF/Mossad will plan and pre-strike these missile launch networks and their missile storage sites based on those other fragmented pieces of intel that won't be able to account for everything. And even then, they need to factor how easily Iran can get new batches of missiles into Lebanon via land corridors that they can't necessarily touch in places like Syria and Iraq without risking further regional conflicts if they make mistakes and kill citizens in those countries with targeted strikes there.
This is all before we talk about the other missile-firing sites in Houthi-controlled Yemen to their south that Iran also supplies via a mix of sea and land corridor. The north/south split of the LH/Houthi threats not only divides the burdens of missile defense coverage, it also divides the burdens of intelligence collection and the limited assets needed to cover that aspect of the war/defense planning as well. Even beyond Gaza, the IDF are in a tough situation trying to defend Israel from the missile barrage threat via two north/south axis' and are lucky to have the US and other nations covering a chunk of that air defense envelope in the Red Sea for them, though I wouldn't rely on that shared coverage indefinitely if I were them.
Jul 29, 2024
at
2:41 PM
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