๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐๐, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐.
Sounds backwards, but it's not
In 1865, economist William Jevons had already observed something peculiar: as steam engines became more efficient at burning coal, coal consumption went up, not down
Why? Efficiency unlocked new use cases. Suddenly, coal made economic sense for industries that couldn't afford it before
That's ๐๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐ป๐' ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ผ๐
. And it's playing out now in tech
๐น ๐๐น๐ผ๐๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด: It didn't cut spending as the investment was cheaper. It made way for millions of startups that couldn't afford to own servers. It enabled millions of startups that couldn't afford servers
๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: The price per GB of hard drives has reduced. Total data stored exploded
๐น ๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ป๐: As costs dropped 10x, usage went up 100x. Companies now use more tokens per task because they can afford higher accuracy
Most AI tokens in the future will be used on things we don't even do today. Software projects that wouldn't have been started. Contracts that wouldn't have been reviewed. Research that wouldn't have happened
The pattern repeats:
When mainframes cost millions, only governments used them. Minicomputers brought tens of thousands of users. PCs brought hundreds of millions. Smartphones brought billions
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:
AI won't replace programmers. It will expand what programming means
This means, if AI makes programmers 10x more productive, but creates 20x more opportunities to apply programming, we'll need twice as many developers
The "programmable surface area" of business keeps growing. Every company needs AI agents. Every workflow needs automation. Every decision needs data
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐พ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐๐ป'๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐
It's whether you'll use it to do things that weren't possible before