Inderes’ comment on Harvia’s market share, aligning with our estimates. By the early 2030s, relevant market share is about 14% but the share on heating equipment has grown very nicely even as the internationalization strategy is still early days. $HARVIA

We believe Harvia's target markets will continue to grow in the coming years, and the company will be able to continue gaining market share. In this comment, we outline the development of Harvia's markets and market shares. It should be noted that the figures are only rough estimates, as precise market figures are not available. 

Harvia's market is growing

Since the Capital Markets Day held two years ago, Harvia has estimated that the global sauna and spa market will grow by more than 5% in the coming years. This has been expected to be driven by the recovery of European demand from a weak level on the one hand, and the growth of newer sauna markets outside Europe on the other. Precise figures for the market are not available, but this development appears to have materialized over the past two years, at least based on Harvia's own figures. Regarding market size, Harvia raised its estimate for the total market size in its Q4'25 report to "nearly 4 BEUR," whereas it had previously estimated the market to be 3.5 BEUR. However, Russia accounts for ~0.5 BEUR of this market, where Harvia has no operations. In addition, around half of the total market consists of installation, maintenance, and repair work, which Harvia does not offer. 

Thus, Harvia's currently relevant market is, in our estimation, clearly less than 2 BEUR, instead of the aforementioned almost 4 BEUR. However, the market appears to be growing by over 5%, in line with previous expectations, which naturally supports Harvia's growth. The figure below shows our estimate of Harvia's relevant product market, which excludes Russia from 2023 onwards. The market growth assumption for the coming years is 6% per annum. 

We expect Harvia's market share to continue to increase

According to Harvia, the company has a market share of over 5% of the entire sauna and spa market. The company updated the wording in connection with the Q4’25 report after having long estimated the share to be around 5% From the relevant market estimated as mentioned above, we estimate Harvia's market share to have been ~12% in 2025. The share has grown strongly, as we estimated it to be only 4% ten years ago. This has naturally been boosted by acquisitions, but the company has also been able to systematically gain market share organically.

In the coming years, we expect Harvia to continue gaining market share. We expect this to happen especially in the US market, where we anticipate the company will not only continue to grow its traditional sauna business but also make stronger inroads into the steam product market and, over time, the infrared product market. Harvia's current sales of infrared products are very limited, even though their share of the US market is about 40% In Europe, we believe Harvia's growth will be close to the market growth rate, and thus market shares will remain unchanged. In rest of the world (i.e. the APAC & MEA region), Harvia's market share is relatively the smallest. We believe that Harvia will also be able to gain market share in these markets in the coming years by increasing its presence and product range. 

Overall, we estimate Harvia's market share of the relevant market to increase from the current 12% to 14% by 2029.