Reports indicating that elements within the IRGC may have acted without full coordination from the Iranian government, and that Iranian President Pezeshkian has expressed strong opposition to those actions, highlight a fragmentation of command that complicates any path toward de-escalation. This lack of clarity around decision-making increases the risk premium embedded in oil markets, as it raises the probability of further uncoordinated actions that could disrupt supply or damage infrastructure.

At the same time, IRCG’s continued willingness to demonstrate its capacity to inflict damage suggests that it is not prepared to concede under pressure, leaving the United States facing a prolonged conflict scenario or a compromise outcome that may fall short of its strategic objectives.