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What continues to amaze me is how relaxed FX volatility remains and how buoyant US stocks are, despite the world around it becoming steadily more combustible. Oil is elevated, inflation pressures are spreading again, central banks are drifting back toward hawkish territory, and the Middle East remains unresolved, yet currency markets continue to trade like a lake without wind. Traded volatility across G10 currencies is sitting near the lower end of five-year ranges, which tells you something important about the psychology of this market. Investors are still behaving as though every geopolitical flare-up is temporary, every inflation spike is manageable, and every macro shock eventually gets absorbed by the gravitational pull of the AI boom. Equity markets have effectively become the emotional stabilizer for the entire macro complex. As long as the Nasdaq keeps levitating on the back of hyperscaler spending and AI infrastructure euphoria, FX traders remain reluctant to price sustained disorder into the system.

FX Alert: The Carry Trade Casino Is Still Open but the Fire Exits Are Starting to Glow
May 13
at
9:38 AM
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