The world economy is rapidly approaching an ELE. Oil inventories in transit, at resellers, refiners, local deposits, and strategic repositories are being drained at record pace. The IEA pointed out in its most recent report (Oil Market Report May 2026) that the global output gap (supply - demand) has reached around 9 million barrels a day (mb/d), from oversupply up until February.

The supply loss from Gulf countries reached 14.4mb/d. Increased output from the rest of the world at around 1.6mb/d isn’t even close to making a meaningful contribution.

Crunch time may come as soon as June.