I put a lot of work into today’s article. It’s a deep exploration of prediction in nonlinear systems. It’s rich with research and reaches some important conclusions.

In it, we’re going to cover four main areas of discussion:

• Why inductive reasoning fails in nonlinear systems

• How to think about prediction in unpredictable markets

• Using sandpiles to understand how markets reach critical states

• Preparation > prediction.

This has been one of my favourite pieces to put together, I hope you enjoy it.

Will be released at 7:30am GMT.