In either case, the war has shaken up the status quo, and I see lasting consequences that go well beyond oil. The capital flows from the oil rich countries which has flowed generously to everything from AI start ups to Premier League clubs will shrink, creating down-market effects. That money, and the funds that were set aside to build vanity projects, from ski resorts in the deserts to state-of-the-art cities will be redirected to building pipelines and securing the flow of oil