"Polymarket's odds are often wildly inaccurate. A day before Kamala Harris announced Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Polymarket had Walz at just a 24% chance, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was favored at 63%. This shows how far off the betting markets can be from the reality of campaign decisions and outcomes, proving that it is little more than speculation wrapped in an aura of legitimacy."

I don't think you know what "odds" are? Odds are the likelihood of a given event, the fact that people misperceived the information landscape regarding the VP pick doesn't somehow mean that the odds of that pick were wrong, it just means that the lower probability event happened. E.g. if there's a .75 probability of rain but it doesn't rain, that doesn't necessarily mean the model that generated that probability is wrong - the model said there was a 1 in 4 chance that it would rain after all.