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I reviewed your data carefully, and it appears you have dramatically overestimated the remaining infrastructure. For example, all the rail ferries have been destroyed. Two of the five remaining vehicle ferries are unable to handle heavy goods. The three vehicle ferries that can handle heavy goods have a combined capacity of under 1000 tons per day. The road network into Crimea has been effectively destroyed, and while a trickle of goods can move that way, continued Ukrainian strikes are reducing that capacity daily, as well as destroying the actual vehicles moving to Crimea. I put that capacity under 5000 tons per day. Feodosia is a few drone strikes away from complete destruction. Shipping capacity has also been decimated on the Black Sea and is virtually nonexistent today. Air freight traffic is extremely limited, again under 500 tons per day. That leaves the Kerch bridge. And the question is, how long will it stand? When it falls, Crimea falls with it.

Jun 17
at
10:25 AM
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