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Torghatten Capital investment update
Mindset: Fundamentals are what they are, and how the stock price moves isn't really any of my business. It will be what it is. My strategy is to stay patient and just wait for them to converge.
Activity:
Been building positions in Fair Isaac (around $1,000), ServiceNow, Lifco, Constellation Software, Brown & Brown, and REQ Global Compounders.
CSU has gone from 13% of the portfolio at the start of 2025 to roughly 60% now, been adding consistently throughout. Lifco was attractive again around 270 SEK, which is when I re-entered after selling near 330 last year. My fair value estimate sits around 366 SEK for an 8% return; to achieve 12% or 15%, you'd need to enter at 306 and 267, respectively. Started buying BRO around $67 and plan to add more, I see it as an AI beneficiary that's simply been dragged down by the broader selloff.
On CSU, I think fair value is at least 3,300 CAD, and that's using fairly conservative assumptions: 15% FCF growth (FCFA2S IRGA adjusted) with a 20x exit multiple (5% FCF yield), which is well below historical levels on both ends.
With Novo, you're essentially getting the diabetes segment at current prices and the obesity segment almost for free as a call option. Using diabetes EBIT alone, intrinsic value comes out somewhere in the 150–210 DKK range, with obesity layered on top. Risk feels low at these levels, and 360 DKK within 24 months seems very plausible. 2026 will likely be soft with minimal growth, but a meaningful inflection should start emerging in H2 2027.
Update 06.05 - Now that NVO has shown it's not out of the race, analysts will probably dust off their models and revise what were frankly absurd price targets, ones built on peak pessimism around sales, margins, and the volume/price mix. You really can't make it up. Analysts remain stubbornly short-sighted, rarely looking beyond 6–12 months, and have a strong tendency to herd.
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