I do believe you've nailed it. The problem with Notes is that it's all about finding writers who are good at... posting notes. That is, those who play the game which has as its #1 rule is that you must pretend it isn't a game.

I've had a few interesting exchanges on Notes, and that's great. But it seems to be way more about the popular folks sitting around patting each other on the back, and the not so popular tapping the door in the hope to be noticed.

And there you have it, as you said Corey. The inner circle expands but it's less about the person's work that yields the mutual support, and more about the social personality that one can display.

That's my take anyway. Same dynamic as writers on Twitter.