China trimming Treasuries isn’t a plot twist. It’s a risk manager doing their job.

China’s reported UST holdings falling (to the lowest since 2008) matters, but the bigger signal is this: the marginal buyer of long-duration debt is getting more price-sensitive, which can make long rates jumpier and “easy valuations” harder to justify. 📉💵

I’m watching three things, not headlines:

1. TIC Table 5 trend (steady drip vs one-off)

2. 10Y yield vs expected Fed cuts (term premium tells the truth)

3. COFER USD share (slow, boring shifts are the real regime change) 🐢

If your portfolio only works when rates behave nicely, it’s not a portfolio, it’s a bet.

What’s one position you own that silently assumes lower yields?