The Easy Years Are Over

The last two years weren’t about skill. They were about not messing it up.

The next two years will be very different. We’re about to meet the market’s final boss.

We came out of a short bear market into a world flooded with liquidity. Fiscal stimulus was everywhere, money was cheap, and we started a new technological revolution, AI, giving markets a simple narrative to follow blindly. As soon as it became clear that rates would come down, capital had only one place to go: risk assets.

From that moment on, the playbook was easy.

Buy anything related to AI. Hold it. Outperform.

Nvidia, TSM, ASML, Google & co... They all delivered returns largely north of 100% and let's be honest... Those weren't the hardest stocks to pick, while shitcos and small cap delivered multiples.

If you bought and held AI stocks over the past two years, you likely beat the market. If you didn't, it is because you fucked up. The only way not to was to overtrade with leverage, options or poor sizing. Directionally, it was hard, impossibly really, to be wrong. Momentum did the heavy lifting.

That environment is gone.

Today, the situation is very different. Money is no longer cheap. Covid-era savings are gone. We have more geopolitical tensions. Sovereign debt is becoming a real pain. Rates are being cut in the U.S., yes, but into a far less forgiving environment.

Markets changed with it.

Valuations are now a real concern. Risk also is. Many AI names now trade at what the market considers fair, generous even, levels. Liquidity no longer lifts all boats and momemtum is slowing down. By late 2025, selectivity already showed. Sectors stopped moving as one. Only leaders continued to perform.

The AI cycle isn’t over. Far from it.

But the everything goes up together, is.

Leaders still lead.

But the pack doesn’t follow anymore.

This is where the game changes.

For a while, markets felt like a tutorial level where you only had to listen to your big brother to make it.

"Press X here" And you’d be up 200% on that $UUUU or $IONQ call option.

Momentum forgave bad timing, bad valuation, bad sizing, bad stock picking and very often even bad fundamentals, bad business model.

That won’t work going forward.

Strong earnings are no longer enough on their own. Guidance matters more. Margins matter more. Cash generation matters more. Aaluation matters more. Risk matters more. Companies can deliver good results and still go nowhere, or go down.

The market isn’t overreacting. It’s repricing risk.

We are no longer rewarded for simply being exposed.

We are rewarded for being right.

This is the final boss of the cycle.

And god knows many will fail because they took bad habits.

Beating it doesn’t require faster reactions or more leverage. It requires patience, discipline, and actual stock selection. Understanding businesses. Understanding valuation. Accepting that sitting out is sometimes the best trade.

Many complained that the last two years were “too easy.” They’re about to get what they asked for.

We are back in the stock-picking era. The skilled era.

And now the fun really begins.