Make money doing the work you believe in

Investing is unforgiving. One small mistake can be very costly, and there’s no way back.

Nebius might be that mistake for me this year.

This isn’t hindsight bias. I said the very next day that selling was a mistake as the stock didn't break my conditions to hold. Sentiment took over and I took a decision I shouldn’t have.

That’s all it takes.

The last week and a half cost me a few salaries in unrealized P&L. One emotinal afternoon cost me months of work.

I’m not here to complain. I’m here to be transparent, to illustrate how critical systems - and respecting them, really are.

Your system exists to protect you from yourself.

Ideas, opinions, convictions can make money. But they can't regularly outperform. Over time, convictions turn into bias, and bias costs.

Systems only can compound over decades. And the single most important rule is simple: don’t break it.

I broke mine. Now I have to work on fixing that.

Mistakes are opportunities to improve.

Fully out of Nebius after 200%+ returns.

I am not one to fall in love with my stocks. But this one sale has a particular and pretty salty flavor.

If Google wasn't rewarded for its CapEx and compute returns, I do not see why IREN or Nebius would. When leaders fall, second-handed assets rarely rise.

I hope we get that bounce and I hope you ho…

Feb 18
at
7:16 PM
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