The Transmedics sell-off is silly.

The market is caught up in its drama and doesn't think straight anymore.

1. Transport costs are fixed.

That's factual, management said it many times. They accept higher costs for a while to drive volume.

So higher oil prices hurts margins. But margins were ~29% in 2025 with oil around $80.

Oil won’t average $100 this year. Spikes can happen but

a $100 yearly average shouldn't - or we'll have bigger problems.

2. The U.S. is not dependent on Hormuz.

Transmedics operates jets only in the U.S. where domestic production + Canada cover over ~70% of consumption.

The rest does not rely entirely on OPEC and Venezuela could add supply if needed as they now are supposed to supply the U.S.

Higher oil will hurt everyone but the regions dependent on Middle East far more than the U.S.

3. Oil flows are not blocked.

Most of those who comment have no clue what happens on Hormuz - nor I, but reports talk about tankers passing and plans to make the passage safe and regular.

Plus, public maps only show transponders of all boats, not only tankers and those can be turned off. There's a war there so public tracker won't show you what happens...

4. Time matters.

A few days of disruption changes little. Countries have reserves and logistics are optimized. A long week of complete blockage will start to yield the first issues but until then, it is speculation.

Markets aren't the reality.

I personally remain optimistic for many reasons, most which didn't change since this post.

The situation isn’t ideal, sure.

But we shouldn't let noise get the best of us.