Transmedics closed Q1-26 with a record 2,535 flights, an 18.8% increase YoY, pretty massive.

Based on the last year and a half of data, I’d expect a revenue floor ~$172M, with the only "bearish" variable being the double shifting of their planes, which could mean fewer third-party flights and, hence, lower total OCS usage than assumed on my model.

Either way, Q1-26 should be good, up ~10%+ QoQ and ~20% YoY; real good would require ~$180M as their FY26 guidance sits between 20% & 25%, ~$172M would be good a really good start though, while it is fair to expect a bit higher as my math has usually been beaten everytime.

Margins might hurt, as expected a few weeks ago, due to R&D spending and more flights, but Transmedics remains a very healthy company. I still don't understand why the market sells it, nor why it trades at its lowest P/S ever with so many tailwinds, but well.

Sometimes, the market's a bitch.