As a part time Arizonan, I disagree with your conclusion. Katie Hobbs is highly unpopular with Arizonans. She only won by 17,000 votes in 2022 against Kari Lake, and Hobbs is viewed as much more unpopular than when she ran.

As to what Kelly has done on immigration, he challenged Biden's position, as did almost every Democrat in Arizona.

I'm not ready to predict 2026, because we don't know the damage that a Trump administration is going to cause to Arizona, but his proposal on deportation and tariffs could be devastating to Arizona that is dependent on immigrants for agriculture, construction, and hospitality and it's industries are heavily import/export.

There is talk of Kimberly Yee, treasurer, running for governor. She is viewed as a normal Republican, and if she could get through a primary, I believe she would be hard to beat unless we have a blue tsunami.

As attitudes stand now, I'm not sure Hobbs would win against anybody, including a typical Arizona R loon, but 2026 is a long way out.