Scary world!! I've dusted off some of my old game theory books and started doing some game matrices and using Bayesian inference to update the different games and conditional probabilities etc. (As bad as war is, this one has been fun to trade and fun to game out). I think when all of this is set and done the political strategist community will have learned that mutual defense alliances like NATO need to be scrapped the minute the core objective of the alliance disappears (the Soviet Union). I think leaving such alliances in place is akin to constructing all sort of models of reality based on "ghosts" and since ghosts don't exist the strategic community at large sets itself up for a massive failure in the future (war is always a failure by ALL parties involved because war is always a less efficient way of achieving Nash equilibria)

Happy speculating!