That’s it! – Urals crude barrel has fallen back below the $59 mark, which corresponds to Russia’s 2026 budget forecast.

Meanwhile, Brent is currently trading at $72, which is 25% more expensive than Urals. At the height of the Hormuz crisis, the price of Urals had temporarily exceeded that of Brent. The large quantities of Russian oil at sea in the ‘ghost fleet’ tankers were then meeting the need for immediately available supplies.

However, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the 🇺🇸 exemptions on oil tanker exports since 17 June have made this crude less essential and more expensive to transport. The discounts applied to 🇷🇺 crude on official prices are therefore likely to reappear.

Furthermore, the disruption to refining chan in Russia will have several consequences for the 🇷🇺 economy:

1️⃣It is disrupting the entire oil supply chain and could ultimately affect the extraction of crude oil itself, which serves as the main source of budget revenue.

2️⃣It exacerbates local shortages and drives up fuel prices, which fuels inflationary pressures and will slow the pace at which the Russian Central Bank cuts its key interest rates – bad news for productive investment.

3️⃣It affects economic sectors dependent on transport, starting with agriculture, which will further hamper already sluggish growth.

4️⃣It forces 🇷🇺 to import fuel that could have been produced locally, representing avoidable additional expenditure.

⚠However, tensions in the Middle East remain high and prices could rise again rapidly. Demand for oil could also be boosted by importing countries’ desire to replenish their strategic reserves, which could slow the current decline in prices.