"Probably" is not the word. Gascon is toast, no question about that. Of course D.A. is a county position, so they are voted on by many different communities from Lancaster to La Habra Heights. It will be weird having a semi-closeted Repub as D.A., but California seems to be moving more towards the "tough on crime" position in the cycle of crime and punishment policy. See also Prop 36 for another example of that trend. 36 will pass easily, increasing penalties for various crimes.