I could see IA being one of the Senate seats that could be swingy if the hypothetical you are describing would happen.

MT on the other hand would be more challenging in today’s environment vs back in 2006. Senator Steve Daines is running for his third term, not his first or 2nd. If this were an open race and Daines wasn’t in the Senate, I’d say maybe.

However, in 2020 Steve Bullock didn’t cut down the margin enough in his Senate election to make me believe unseating an incumbent GOP Senator in MT would be promising.