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Hold on for a second here.
Nationalizing the MT-Race isn’t exactly what I’m arguing here. I also didn’t exactly explain my reasoning to begin with.
I’m mainly concerned that Tester isn’t getting enough support outside of MT. Financial and grassroots support is more important but the second the DSCC and PAC committees start flooding the airwaves with Washington insider messaging, then Tester’s campaign will get the attacks from the Sheehy camp of being too tied to Washington. Agreed regarding Tester knowing MT better than any pollster.
As for the math, here’s what I’m referring to regarding the Census data:
Unfortunately, the population gender demographics that are cited in the Census are not added together so you can see the total population in each. You have to add each set of data by age date (both for men and women). As it turns out, the 49% women data may not be completely accurate when it comes to voters as there are women aged younger than 18 who are represented. It might be anywhere from 46% to 47% but I’ll take a look when I get home and perhaps put more hypotheticals to consider.