I disagree with Alaska being a long shot. Depending on who is nominated, a Likely Republican rating is fitting for now.

Dan Sullivan did win re-election by double digits but there were also no Democratic Candidates running back in 2020.

AK as a state can be a bit swingy towards politicians depending on their appeal. If moderate Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski can weather the storm in recent re-election battles and Mary Peltola can win the House, anything can happen.