81 Comments
May 5, 2023·edited May 5, 2023

Unfortunately, we have learned almost nothing... and yet again, history repeats. Setting aside the absolute absurdity of politics and conspiracy theories we've endured for the past 3.5 years, those who knew better should and could have done many things to reduce transmission, improve indoor air quality, break down inequities of health care access, etc., but they chose not to for the "sake of the economy," while simultaneously actively disabling the workforce. History will not reflect kindly on how things were handled during the PHEIC and I do not expect things to improve moving forward. We are a species bent on mutal/self-destruction driven primarily by short-term greed. The damage done to "science" has been immense.

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I love your posts and this is one point where I'll disagree with you (though I understand your reasoning). I did not agree with the ending of the USA's Public Health Emergency because of how many people it kicked of Medicaid, the access to testing, treatment, and vaccines that is now limited within our royally screwed up healthcare system, etc. Do those protections need to exist within "emergency declarations"? No. Should they? Not really, it would be better if they were incorporated into our actual healthcare system. But, alas, it's all we had. It proved that the government DID have the resources to take care of all N. Americans during a crisis, and COULD HAVE continued to do so. But, we ended the emergency and now millions of people have lost access to potentially life saving treatments and medical care.

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Well, I never. I survived the public health emergency and got struck down with Covid on the last day. If only I could have just waited one more day, I could have avoided it altogether

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Hope you get well soon!

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Any chance you have an article on mask recommendations. We still mask indoors, but we are the only family in our area who does. Mask fatigue is real, but I don't want to suffer repeated infections. Thanks so much, Mary

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Same here, Mary. Same here.

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My husband and I still wear masks indoors. We don't plan on stopping anytime soon.

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I find it helps if I don't think of masks as a moral imperative, but just a thing I do under certain circumstances when I feel like it's warranted. I really don't care if nobody around me masks.

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founding

We still mask even in situations where it seems ridiculous~I have relaxed a bit my husband is religious about it. It's just a habit that we do, and hope we don't get it again as we do believe that long COVID is something we do not want. We both had COVID in May 2022 took quite awhile to feel better, "normal" (?) again, basically about two months after having it.

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Is everyone around you constantly coming down with Covid or are they just fine? If the latter, maybe reconsider mask hypothesis?

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Great question. It seems nobody in Congress or the White House gets Covid anymore, despite constant interactions with others, hand shaking, travel, meals - all without masks. Maybe they do get Covid and it doesn’t make the news.

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So many of the papers on masking assess on a public health perspective, not a person perspective. And it appears that due to (I believe the wrong masks, the wrong techniques, the inconsistency) this masking has been debunked. I firmly feel that behavior modification during high transmission times, plus vaccination, plus “correctly”!! applied n95 masking does indeed protect the wearer at least enough to make a difference. Masking on a long flight with others unmasked? Hard to know. Cloth? No. Loosely fitted masks? No. 100%? No. Enough to make a difference? I genuinely believe so. Time will tell. If I had a dime for every patient that said, “I haven’t been anywhere!! How could I have been infected??” When they were definitely “somewhere”, or their kid was on the wrestling team! So yeah, from a public health perspective, globally the numbers did not add up. Personally? I am still a believer it mitigates infection, not prevents. Especially in high transmission times.

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Residual risk = inherent risk - risk reduction after mitigation

An intervention can be good, but not good enough if the inherent risk is high.

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They seemed to be getting it a lot in 2022, when Paxlovid was easy to come by for them but harder for ordinary folks. Pretty awful optics, IMO

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Congress, NBA, NHL, Broadway, my kids school, my wife’s hospital, etc. everyone who finally took off their masks paid no consequence.

I think we need to consider that the pre2020 scientific consensus that makes didn’t make much impact in viral transmission was correct all along, and we merely duped ourself thinking otherwise because a barrage of poor studies got paraded as evidence.

They’ve almost all been falsified at this point anyway, so, assuming we are neutral, only guided by evidence, seems logical to discard mask hypothesis.

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founding

Then why did cases of flu collapse in number during this pandemic? Most experts have pointed to that as evidence that masks do help reduce the transmission of infectious diseases - which only makes common sense.

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Flu disappeared in non-mask countries too (Sweden, Africa, Norway, etc). I think the viral interference hypothesis explains this better than the idea that loose worn masks in Germany somehow eradicated the flu in Sweden.

And it’s important to remember when the flu disappeared it was when we were wearing the cloth masks which now nearly everyone - even mask absolutists - realize are ineffective.

How could cloth masks stop the flu but not Covid?

Why did Japan suffer terrible flu in 2018 if they wear masks?

Why did flu return in the countries that were still masking in 2022?

The obvious answer would be, that masks can’t stop respiratory viruses, just as we thought up until 3 years ago.

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I think if we'd all been able to wear fresh well fitting N95's every time we went out, then it would have worked, but the resources for that never really existed.

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It’s curious that Fauci, Walensky, the President and First Lady ALL got Covid within about a month of each other. Why did they all seemingly let their guard down at the same time? It’s as if they all got the same memo saying something like “it’s no big deal to get Covid now because we have Paxlovid” or “natural immunity is better than just the vaccine” or “unless you have three or more comorbidities, you never were at great risk.” These are just guesses as to possible motivation. But the timing seems like more than a coincidence. What do they know that the rest of us haven’t been told, if anything?

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Three thoughts -

1) Until 2020 we didn't routinely run PCR and Rapid Tests multiple times per day on elected officials. It seems completely feasible, likely even, that had we been done this in (choose arbitrary date) - the summer of 1985 we might have found Reagan, George HW Bush, and James Mason all had minor cold within one month of each other.

2) You know where I lean, that all of this - the masks, the social distancing, the corsi rosenthal boxes - it's all been theater. In 100 years our descendants will laugh at us the same way we laugh at our ancestors for wearing plague masks, using bloodletting and treating with mercury. There was no "letting guard down" because they were never guarded in the first place. Their cloth and surgical masks offered no more protection than clutching a piece of lead in your hand walking through Chernobyl.

3) As for why they all got it within a month, considering that the Vaccine wanes after X months, and they all got the vaccine at the same time, seems reasonable that they would become susceptible at the same time too.

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May 8, 2023·edited May 8, 2023

Yes - it's entirely possible for Reagan, Bush, Mason to all get colds within a month of each other - but not if they're also practicing social distancing, N95 mask wearing, hand washing/sanitizing, proper ventilation and screening all guests with covid tests prior to in-person meetings. When these precautions are in place, its much harder for 3 people to all come down with colds at the same time.

Even if you take masks and waning vaccines out of the equation, all the other precautions should have prevented the 3 most visible leaders of our pandemic response (Fauci, Walensky, Biden) from getting covid at the same time.

Fauci, Walensky and Biden all let their guard down at the same time. Why was it suddenly okay for them to throw prevention measures out the window, especially after spending years trying to avoid Covid? Two of them are over 80, which places them at high risk of death.

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May 5, 2023·edited May 5, 2023

As much as I love your posts, I do not agree with these decisions. I am immunocomprimised and am more afraid now than ever. Now I will be, and often am the ONLY person in my area wearing a mask. I have been ridiculed for this and fear it will get even worse now.

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I’m with you there. I am newly immunocompromised after having an overactive immune system. I am the only one masking at work or any indoor place. Even saying you are immunocompromised doesn’t mean the person won’t still ridicule you. After being a hospital nurse during the thick of the pandemic and now this, it’s hard not to feel all empathy has left the building.

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founding

If you look at the CDC data you will see that older folks and those immunocompromised are less in numbers than younger people. However, if you do get Covid your chance of death is much higher. I am older with medical problems and will continue to use my N95 properly fitted whenever I am out and about. (I have had 6 shots of the Moderna vaccine) If asked by an ignorant person why I am wearing a mask I say "it is to prevent THEM from getting my variant from Europa which is often fatal." I then walk away and let them come to their own conclusions.

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I'm really sorry to hear that you have been ridiculed for it. It should be socially acceptable to wear a mask for any reason if you feel you need to.

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founding

I AGREE you go on ahead! I may not need it as much as I wear it BUT it can't hurt me. I have some higher risk factors. So, I am in solidarity with folks like you.

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Imani Barbarin is a disability activist (Crutches and Spice on Instagram). She's called where we are at right now with COVID-19 a "global disability event." She's referencing all of the lingering and permanent physical and cognitive effects of COVID on untold millions of people. I have to for once disagree with your analysis, Katelyn. I think we have hardly begun to grapple with the "huge moment" that this is because we have yet to allow in the enormity of the long-term effects of COVID, even non-long COVID which can still have long-term impacts, especially on this generation of children.

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"Thus passes Winter.". The full force of the storm may have passed over the horizon, but the wreckage remains..lives lost, businesses extinguished, social networks frayed or in tatters, an entire society destabilized at every level. And those who suffer the aftereffects in their own bodies, whose lives will be shortened. By our strenuous efforts we may have triumphed over the virus, but in the words of the ancient Pyrrhus of Epirus, 'Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar."

"Another such victory and I am undone."

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Thank you so much, Katelyn, for this and for all your hard work to keep us informed these last few years. As you've said, the pandemic is NOT over. Things will never be as they were in the "before times." I particularly appreciate these words of yours: "It’s beyond time to confront the threats to our individual and collective health so we are not in a constant state of emergency. We cannot keep living in a perpetual cycle of panic and neglect." Amen!!

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Thank you for your updates. I have to go back over your other posts, if you have talked about excess deaths. It was about 40% in Ireland sometime last year I think. It's about 20% in the UK at the moment apparently. I am sad people who already have underlying conditions are left exposed with masks mandates gone from hospitals in Ireland. It's very nuts to me anyway.

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Somebody needs to do a comparative study of excess deaths across countries to find out what’s going on. The anti-vaxers will of course say it’s the vaccine. But this is a serious problem and needs to be understood. We cannot just move the goalposts, throw up our hands, and accept this as the new normal!

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founding

If anyone would like to write their congressmembers on the end of traditional Medicare coverage for OTC rapid tests, feel free to crib from this language I sent today to my delegation:

230505: sent to Nadler, Schumer, Gillibrand re Medicare Discontinuance of Payment for OTC Rapid Tests

I have just received notice from Medicare that “After May 11, 2023, Medicare will no longer cover or pay for over-the-counter (OTC) COVID-19 tests.” (Our household is on traditional Medicare, to which this notice applies. Medicare Advantage is not an appropriate option for us.)

As you know, older people, many, if not most, of whom have additional comorbidities, remain most at risk from Covid, even if fully vaccinated and boosted, as we are. Our household also takes many extra precautions to avoid infections, such as wearing masks in public indoor settings. OTC rapid tests have been, and will continue to be, of critical importance to us so that we may be as safe from infection as possible, while retaining the ability at least to visit with friends and family in private indoor settings. Can you please advise what your office is doing and/or will do, to assure OTC rapid tests continue to be available to traditional Medicare recipients?

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Thank YOU for all you've been doing to help us understand and cope. It's nice to know that the light at the end of the tunnel didn't turn out to be a train headed our way. And yes, indeed...let us hope we've learned something from this experience to better prepare us for the next one.

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We are ultra careful. But many people are not, and they are looking for justification not to be careful any more if they ever were careful. Secondly, Dr. Fauci has said that he has repeatedly announced that it is the elderly who are most in danger. That is supposed to comfort all of those who are NOT elderly. But has this guy ever looked in the mirror? And if the people who are living with elderly parents, for example, are not extra careful, will they give their elderly relatives Covid and then be comforted by the thought that it Must Have Been Their Time?

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founding

The actual number of the elderly is staggeringly large, too, over 50 million in the US, but that number is never mentioned. It is always “except for the elderly and the immunocompromised” or some variant on those words. Implying a tiny minority that sadly will have to live (or die) with it.

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It has always given a false justification for younger people to go about their lives.

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I so appreciate your comment that "we deserve all the feelings today." Your post really hit home and brings me to a question. My husband, my 4-year-old, and I are taking a vacation next week. Yes, we are flying. My husband asked yesterday, "Do we have to wear masks when we fly?" [Imagine his contemptuous glare at me as he asks this over dinner]. To which I replied, "I don't think FAA is requiring masking anymore, but I would like to wear masks as much as possible, particularly in the airport." He begrudgingly accepted but...am I being overly cautious? Creature of a now-habit? We are all as up-to-date as our demographics allow with vaccinations but some part of me Can't. Let. Go. Appreciate any rationalization or advice!

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A good friend of mine traveled from Bozeman MT to Europe... spent 2 weeks there travelling around with a friend. Traveling back... had a layover of a few hours in Denver. Decided he didn't need/want to mask. Once back home, 3 days later, he tested positive for Covid (He's 73) and is going thru "the wringer". His friend who he'd traveled with till the airport in France is not infected. He's quite sure that it was the layover in Denver where he picked up Covid. I picked him up at the airport here in Bozeman... have tested 4 times in the 14 days since and all tests have been negative. Clearly his infection happened during his plane travel back. Soooooo

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That's my thing. A relatively small inconvenience while traveling could prevent a larger inconvenience down the line. Simple choice to me!

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Thank your for this. I don’t think I have truly grieved all our losses, including the life I led before the pandemic. It is a sobering and sad day. We have learned much, yet little has really changed. Our healthcare system is all about greed and not about our health, and so many people seem quite OK with that. Grieving today for all our losses.

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Thank you, as always for your analysis.

Unfortunately, the population at large will interpret this declaration as “ Yay, it’s over!”.

As said by other posters, we should continue to support the compromised- whether immunologically, economically or socially- and above all, have strong support for long- Covid sufferers, many of whom are in their most productive years, and trying to raise their families. By support, I mean a comprehensive approach that includes access to treatments as they become approved, adjunct therapies, economic and social support.

In the US, how can this be achieved in our chaotic non- health care system?

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Oh, I forgot to mention , I am currently on my second case of Covid, my first was June 22.

I am thankful for antivirals, and also thankful that the acute phase of my last case resolved in about 10 days, and I was back to baseline activity at 6 weeks. I’m 72.

My daughter, who had Covid twice in 20, in ICU twice, with probable multiple TIAs, and demyelination , among multiple other effects, has been on O2, 4-5L.

Recently, she is very slowly decreasing her oxygen, and may be improving her activity tolerance.

This is the population we need to focus on.

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founding

A like isn’t right for this, but I just want to say, thank you for weighing in. This is so important.

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It feels like such a hopeless situation, but the least we can do is advocate

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Mega iron(Y) dose. At least 35 people tested positive for COVID-19 last week after the CDC's annual conference in Georgia where most people were not masking or social distancing. Now the CDC is investigating itself.

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The CDC said in a press release that this was just part of normal community transmission - NOT a super spreader event - and is to be expected.

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It would be easy enough to prove this with a little sequencing. I'm sure that a fair amount of this is happening behind the scenes, in fact.

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