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Thanks for this information. Makes perfect sense to me. You are right that it smells very British. James Cleverley had a secret meeting with Zelensky the day before.

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JEEEZ

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I know

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Right?

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Jeez indeed.

These guys have destroyed all my pacifist instincts.

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"I dabbled in pacifism once, not in 'Nam of course."

-----Walther Sobchek

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This totally feels like the Nordstream hit. Nobody wins but the consensus is universal, those guys are nuts.

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It’s starting to feel like an all-out attack on humanity itself.

I’m safe in the U.K. but I’m starting to get seriously worried.

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Better late than never.

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Safe in the UK...

For some reason that read like an ironic rock song.

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Actually, the whole line could be the chorus of a song:

“Safe (in the U.K.!)/ but starting to get worried…”

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Never fear, UBI will dash onto the scene just as the migrants protests outside the 4 star hotel rise to a fever pitch.

Seriously though, if we all owrk together we could have hit.

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Was it Gandhi said; If there is one person on the whole planet suffering from in-justice, no one is safe?

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Don't know about that but MLK Jr said "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

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Ninety nine Red Balloons.....

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Come on after all that's where all the money goes, no one will blow up the boss's house. The square mile city of London. Yeah the rich one.

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could say the same thing here "I'm safe in the US". But on the other hand with nukes and hypersonic missiles, no one is safe. Well, maybe on some south sea island. Maybe.

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Bikini Atoll perhaps?

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good one. made me laugh. thanks

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thought it was uninhabitable?

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might be less radioactive than the eastern seaboard soon enouh

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Russia could nuke Washington DC, New York City, San Francisco... Help me out here, 'cause I'm not seeing a downside.

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US/GAE might survive removal of the tumor, no reason for the Russians to interfere until Empire crumbles, barring escalation

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The one word description of the only discernable USA foreign policy-escalation!

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I would bet it was most likely special forces from the west, don't forget a destroyed and suffering Russia and Eastern Ukraine (which is set to be part of Russia) is the best outcome for US/Nato. The more Ukrainians (future Russians) and Russian strategic interests get hurt the more points the West believes it gets in its high score. Even if its not tactically significant, its still good strategically to destroy it, just like it is to kill as many Ukrainians, Russians, and destroy as much of the land and infrastructure as possible. Its Russia who will have to pay for it in the future, and repair and manage the damage and suffer the ecological/financial consequences for all of this.

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My guess - British SAS.

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Likely if only because what else do they really have in term of military anything...?

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I'm not sure I see the win-win in that. What do the westerners get out of it? How does Russia's position change any from what it was before? A little more opportunity for U.S. natural gas sales, that (as a side effect) drives up U.S. costs substantially? Stealing some industrial sales and industry from Europe? I just don't see where this could be the aim of the west in any way.

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Read the RAND's studies, as well as many, many, publications of the last 30 years from the US ruling echelon, from politicians, diplomats, and the called think tank experts on what its plans are and why its in the strategic interests of the US to weaken, collapse, and balkanize Russia, contain China, and remain as what it sees as the only world Superpower. This isn't really a point of contention, this is a basic facts that most anybody following world development over the decades has known. Only the ''masses'' as well as those too young to know are buying the MSMs propaganda campaign on this proxy war being out of the blue and the result of Russia and China being purely evil like from some comic book movie.

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This dam sure changes the playing field rather drastically. Nuke plant is #1 problem/priority.

Ka52 had hits with about 25 seconds between firing & termination. They are sitting way back from the lines.

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author

The Vikhr reportedly flies 600m/s that means 600 x 25 = 15,000 or 15km then. Not bad, even longer range than they're listed at. Could be an extended range version or maybe they fly slightly slower than advertised

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Russian military is like a woman, can only keep secrets for so long & when you press her to find out the truth, the results are usually far more devastating than expected. I'd also hazard a guess & suspect them not to be firing from absolute max range so this is likely just a comfortable sweet spot to work from. Ukr armour will have serious problems, if that's true.

Another significant shite effect of power plant being taken out is again the water supply to Crimea via the canal is threatened. Positive is the dam structure is still standing & ZNPP is still secure. Russia reported Ukr co-ordinated increased water flow upstream to worsen the impact. These actions are war crimes that will be blamed on RF or at the very least be ignored at the emergency UN security meeting.

My 2¢ on Ukr motive- "greatest counter offensive (Dima©️) must be delayed" for more begging time, & to free up reserve forces to move eastward for the current "not the counter offensive." . Also, they have zero qualms in general about completely destroying Donbass areas they are likely to lose.

BTW- kickass report & analysis, & your timing beat virtually every news agency. Meanwhile, AI was still trying to create & collate the 🐂💩.

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600m/s is roughly its top speed.

We know the time to flight from the manufacturer (it's not the current revision of the missile, but they didn't change version designation, so it's probably a small difference). 23 sec to 8000m and 28 sec to 10km.

So the shot is roughly around the 9km mark. Perhaps 10 or 8, but not 15.

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I'll bet the allies blew the dam because they are going to retake Kherson which is a citadel effectively and they never should have left it. But they did. I don't know why. But Kherson is a Russian federated republic now isnt it? So they are going to retake it. But it would be madness to attempt it while the dam remains as a threat all the time.

So remove the threat.

They then need good dry road and air supremacy to be able to speed much troops and munitions across that flood plain during the night.

Still going to be bloody awful. It is a citadel. Plains to the north. Floodplain to the south below them.

But I'll bet that's what's happening.

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"...they are going to retake Kherson which is a citadel effectively and they never should have left it. But they did. I don't know why"

jesus do you ever pay attention? It has been clearly explained numerous times why Russia made a tactical withdrawl.

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Russia made the retreat because of the threat of the dam being destroyed would cut off their supplies. If it was Russia, it would be because they want to 1) prevent an AFU crossing and 2) prepare to cross themselves after the flooding is over. You can't disrupt Russian supply chains by destroying the dam, if it's already destroyed.

Who knows.

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Yep.

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DaFhaak? They completed a textbook strategic withdrawal so that they did not have the river to their back and also to keep the city from getting Fallujahed.

How much was that bet again?

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Just taking Kherson makes no sense because it'll expose the Russians to the same logistics problems they had last year. If they go across the river, they'll have go all the way to Odessa to have a big enough land mass to defend with ports and airports for supplies. If they go for Odessa, they will probably take Zaporozhe first to cross the river North of the dam where it isn't too wide and then move from the North to Odessa while at the same time attacking form the sea. Thus, for the Russians to blow up the dam now in order to prevent the Ukrainians from doing it later to prevent the Russians from crossing the river near Kherson doesn't make any sense.

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Jun 6, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Serious Battle of the Bulge vibes.

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Am actually surprised the dam was destroyed. If the Russians did it, they went from limited SMO to WW3 footing overnight. If the Ukrainians did it... desperation? Is this the false flag?

As for the offensive. I had been wondering for some time why Russia allows the offensive to happen at all. And I feel more convinced of this now. The longer they sit around and wait, the more damage gets done. The attacks into Belgorod are amazing actually. If the equivalent in 2003 happened, say, Saddam activated iraqi sleepers in US border states and blew up a few buildings and killed some civilians, you can imagine the reaction.

I also don't subscribe to the view that a failed offensive = stopping western support. If anything it will prelude even greater material support up to and including direct involvement.

I'm sure the Russians have their plan, and are operating on a different timeline, but on the ground realities have a way of taking things over

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Contextualize your analogy properly:

It's 2003, the U.S. is completely isolated and surrounded by hostile states while being sanctioned by the most powerful economic bloc in the world. Iraq, on the other hand, is being funded by the world's greatest powers to the tune of the largest military assistance in history, even greater than that of Lend Lease for the USSR in WW2. Now, Iraq activates sleeper cells on the border. Can we imagine the reaction? Yes, we can: U.S. would do nothing.

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Russia is not completely isolated, not in the same way. And, on the scope and scale of what Russia is facing- I totally agree. They are facing an existential threat. So why still SMO?

And, in terms of 'doing nothing' in the face of aggression, it just invites more. Put yourself in the shoes of a commander in Kiev or London or wherever. Wouldn't you feel emboldened?

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Would you feel emboldened if every time you tried a new assault, you lost a significant portion of your forces? If day by day your potential for successful offence deteriorated? If you had no air support? If the tanks you were given were not allowed to take part in the battles?

I think the only thing you could hope to accomplish under such circumstances would be continuous acts of terror to put some sort of mask over your obvious failure.

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I am operating under the assumption that the decision makers don't care about those losses. Or, that they consider them acceptable

The power of ideology is not to be underestimated

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I would theorise that the Russians are biding their time. Waiting for... something. In the meantime they are content to allow the Ukrainians to keep throwing troops into the grinder.

What are they waiting for?

Chinese theatre to kick off maybe? It all seems to be getting hotter there as well with naval close calls now...

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They may be waiting for Ukraine/NATO to run out of tricks. Sitting down letting blows rain on them in the full confidence they’ll be able to rise when the adversary is spent and give them the coup de grace. Everything is very dramatic and apocalyptic but a lot can be endured, particularly by Russia. While all this is happening the bystanders in the global south who still think they might be safe get more and more alarmed at the derangeness of it all.

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I think this is a more reasonable perspective. Given that the US and NATO attack poodles are trying to get the RF to overextend itself. As mentioned above the RoW is watching and there is no need for Russia to seem "unreasonable". Being prepared for the continued sabotage is essential as is being able to secure Donbas and surrounding areas.

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It is still SMO and not a total war because Russia and Ukraine are still trading partners. Indeed, Ukraine still provides a vital service of transporting Russian natural gas to Europe - allowing both Russia and Ukraine to finance this military conflict while Europe ultimately shoulders the expenses. At some level this whole war is a militarized commercial conflict.

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I've always wondered how the mechanics of that still works with the Friendship pipeline

Ukraine doesn't call it a SMO though.

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When are the top 100 Ukrainian power leaders going to conclude that making a deal with Russia is a far better option than having the USSA destroy their entire country?

Forgiving Russia for past mistakes, real or imagined, is, at least known. Tying your ass to a clown country, whose main exports are debt and misery, is a black abyss.

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Part of Blinken's speech in Finland (from Kyle Anzalone's article @ Libertarian Institute):

The Secretary of State offered an ambitious vision of Kiev’s future military capabilities. “America and our allies are helping meet Ukraine’s needs on the current battlefield while developing a force that can deter and defend against aggression for years to come.” He added, “That means helping build a Ukrainian military of the future, with long-term funding, a strong air force centered on modern combat aircraft, an integrated air and missile defense network, advanced tanks and armored vehicles, national capacity to produce ammunition, and the training and support to keep forces and equipment combat-ready.” Could be BS, but then again he's a lunatic.

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Yes, this is a false flag. UA clearly did it while blaming RU, particularly on the ecocide and war crime angles. But because it is known that UA almost destroyed the dam earlier, which they have admitted, they cannot be scot-free. Of course, RU has little to no motive for destroying their own infrastructure. It's typical UA modus operandi.

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Pray, action, my goodness, I am back to post a comment. Turn of events has me on edge💙🇷🇺❤️

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These failures in Ukraine are a protent to what's coming for the collective western ponzi. Compound interest on idiocy.

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Jun 6, 2023Liked by Simplicius

Now you're doing real-time, in-depth analysis? Larry Johnson's going to think you're an army of AI bots.

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I know, I feared this one would truly make me look like an AI, but the news just happened to break right as I was at the 95% mark of finishing the article already. So I just quickly collated the best reports about Kakhovka and added them to the top with a little commentary.

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I'm imagining a Simplicius scrambling against their pre-set publishing time trying to get all the new stuff in before the email goes off.

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I'm completely sure Eric Blair, aka George Orwell, would have greatly admired Simplicius's work and output.

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This is really horrible and people are dying! “This just proves to me more than anything that they’ve completely given up on actually trying to win the real land war, and are now only focusing on winning the simulation.”

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Dear oh dear, it's like the impetus we all feel to stare at a road accident as we pass, a combination of a perversion to see the gore and then horror at what is revealed.

Feel great pity for these guys charging artillery barrages, but sadly it is going to happen, hope the Ukrainian army does collapse so this carnage can be over with.

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May I ask what is the source of the first piece of footage shown?

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Jun 6, 2023·edited Jun 6, 2023Author

No one knows, it's just locals reports. If you check the top again I've updated more footage from locals posting videos in area of Kakhovka. There's numerous videos from unnamed locals now all showing the after-effects of the dam destruction.

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dam*

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I asked because I was trying to corroborate the news, but could not find anything fresh, but in the best case, repurposed material from november where rumours said the dam had been damaged.

I got scared when I saw you post, as my first thought was that the kiev dam had been busted, which would be a major catastrophe... let's see how the newsreel unrolls during the day.

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Jun 6, 2023·edited Jun 6, 2023

Today it really is FUBAR. What a mess. Can't wait for what Wimsey has to say.

Ukrainian Soldiers are being brought to the US for treatment. Metallica James Hetfield visits the wounded in Vail CO.

https://www.billboard.com/music/rock/metallica-james-hetfield-visits-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-hospital-1235334325/

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Whimsey?

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Lindsey Graham, we call him Wimsey because he isn't a straight male, and he is also batshit crazy.

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Lol.

He is also a major embarrassment. Just when you think he can't say anything stupider or more inflammatory off he goes🙄

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I despise him. He is responsible for millions of dead and displaced people. I wish he would follow in the footsteps of his best friend.

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Agreed. I despise him more than even the Clintons.

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Tough call on that one.

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I despise the people who continue to elect him to office.

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It isn't the people, it is the purse power.

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His fate is John Mc Cain’s one

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Don't get me even started on that evil POS.

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Major embarrassment? He should be promoted to General Embarrassment.

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I saw this on twatter. People never did understand why I wasn't a Metallica fan. While we have homeless vets on the streets and veteran suicides are going up.

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I want to know why they are having to come to the US? What's the deal? Doesn't Poland or the UK, and other such countries have hospitals w/specialized treatment? A country that is a little closer? Bet the guy doesn't go back to Ukraine.

I read an article earlier saying suicide isn't a military issue, it is a white male issue. News to me.

Yeah, never liked Metallica either.

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Well, I'm starting to think that we have actually become the United States of Ukraine. No expense or accommodation spared. All Ukraine, all the time, like MTV. Nope, he ain't going back to Ukraine. IIRC, Israel is also taking some of them for medical treatment.

A white male issue, huh? Identity politics, the best excuse the government ever came up with to blame its population for the problems its creates for us.

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In Norwich’s City Hall in Norfolk, U.K., the Ukrainian flag has been flying for a whole year now (there’s only the one flagpole). The British, county and city flags haven’t been seen for ages, with the exception of the queen’s death and the new coronation, about two weeks in total. And no one is questioning it.

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It feels like we're in a sci-fi/horror film, I just can't decide if its Invasion of the Body Snatchers or Star Trek & we'll be assimilated into the Borg Collective. Luckily, no one in my little town seems to be interested, but the neighboring town is flying banners and making City Council resolutions. Even after 9/11 I didn't see such mania.

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I suspect they don't want to show European publics the extent of the losses, flooding the European hospitals with WIA Ukroid soldiers would definitely blow the lid on the official "17k AFU KIA" number.

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Desperate people do desperate things. Ukraine clearly blew up the dam as retaliation and to disrupt Russia and make false accusations. This was predictable and many predicted this happening months ago. Should not be a shock to anyone. Asymmetric warfare is largely what Ukraine is reduced to. They are getting beaten to a pulp, and more massive missile strikes took place tonight. Stay calm, and carry on.

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