Hello everybody! After all the events in the Avidiivka sector of the last 48 hours, it’s time for another update. Ah yes… A note before I go on: I’m fabricating disinformation, highly unreliable, a Marxist Neo-Con and Jihadist-supporter working for IRGC, Mossad, MI6 and BND: especially my critique of Israel is making me both ‘anti-Israel’ and ‘anti-Semite’. The mass of what I post here is what I’ve pulled out of my small finger. Therefore, please mind that if you continue reading this feature, you’re doing so at your own risk: I, certainly, cannot recommend anybody doing that.
You really can't write something smarter? I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion. And from one old video that I saw about 5 days ago, this information really cannot be found out.
From the written speech, it is difficult to tell if the answer is sarcasm or if you mean it. I assume the first version.
I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion.
If the answer was not sarcasm and you have good sources for the correction at ZSU, then that changes the situation.
Another one like that. You have no idea what all channels (including pro-Ukrainian) and not only telegram channels (such as YB History legents and Military & History) I subscribe to, but you already judge. You will certainly recommend me some serious telegram accounts . Here with them.
It's not just about concentrating, it's also about having more drones than the enemy and there's more (much more) of the enemy in Avdiivka than in Krynky.
The bandwidth for drones' radio is limited - they would interdict each other's radios.
In Krynky the drones were sent over Dnipro from a long line of the western shore, thus operators were not crowded. In Avdiivka the defenders were crowded, and there were too many attackers + buildings block radio waves + heavy bombing. The Russians also were likely to use EW from all the sides.
Drones are an effective weapon that do a lot of damage and drone operators went without sleep to support the troops but they are not artillery. The Russians presented massed targets, which is perfect for artillery, but there were more targets than drones could hope to account for. You also have to consider the limited number of operating frenquencies that both sides were using and electronic warfare.
In terms of numbers of troops on both sides, Krynky as a battle is about 1% the size of Avdiivka.
Thank you, Tom, again, for continuing to bring us your invaluable updates. Not sure how you do it with everything else going on, but thank you. Between Stefan and you, you guys keep my faith in honest reporting.
What’s your take on the situation with munitions, most importantly, 155-mm? To what extent Ukrainian supply is limited by funding holdup in the US, and to what extent those munitions are simply non-existent, not manufactured yet? Do you have any ideas about how many are still held in the warehouses in the US, Europe, and other Ukraine-friendly places?
Czechs can get and deliver 500k 155mm and 300k 122mm shels in weeks not years (we do have some contacts arround the world), but it need funding. There are negotiations with US, Germany and Sweeden (probably not France - they are focusing on increase of their production to the "amazing" level of 3k 155mm a month and thats why they do block purchase from outside of EU - "clever and lifes of ZSU soldiers and UA civilians saving"). https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-pavel-cesko-muze-ukrajine-v-radu-tydnu-dodat-delostreleckou-munici-40461078
Its time to act and stop the war (finish it), politics might wait for the time people stop dying. So you can support by pushing to your governments
Yes, I've read about this in Ukrainian press, and am very grateful for the Czech people and personally President Pavel for this effort. If money is really the only issue here, I hope money will be found, and quickly.
And yes, I know how to donate money for Ukrainian war efforts, and do it. Thank you!
Thank you, Tom, for the hard work and for providing what information you can credibly find and assess about a situation in which the dust is still settling. I appreciate reading it.
Every good faith reader should understand that the information is very fluid, and that nothing comes with an iron-clad guarantee at this early phase in trying to make sense of the results. It is an iterative process.
Exactly! I would just like to add that the situation is not "pleasant", but my impression is that it's not critical. I mean, let's look at the history. Did the fall of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk lead to the fall of Siversk? No, it didn't. Did the fall of Bakhmut lead to the fall of Kramatorsk/Slovyansk? No, it didn't. So, hopefully, the fall of Avdiivka will not lead to a collapse of a larger section of the battlefield. Again, it is certainly not good news, and the pressure in Donbas will further increase, but the war is still far from being lost!
If he had some numbers on Ukrainian losses, and other stuff that is not known to public, dont you think it would be smart to hold back the information, and not feed it to the russians?
Only time can give answers to your questions. Tom just laid out the facts known to him at the moment, without judgment or deep analysis. Thanks to him for that too.
Thanks for your efforts trying to give some clarity to this chaotic situation. I’m not surprised that some who believe that Russian forces cannot be defeated are skeptical of the report. So much winning!
It's a pity that you have to put up with some of the drivel people write about your invaluable contributions to our understanding of this atrocious war. I'm sure that you won't be deterred - in fact you may be encouraged. There are more than a few of us who assign high value to your work. Thank you. Keep it up.
History isn’t familiar with “if” word. Situation is as it is: Avdiivka is out of UA control. Hope, one day blue-yellow flag is to replace “aqua fresh”.
Zsu had no chance to keep Avdiivka front in such circumstances. It was pure hell.
1st Sloviansk brigade was (re)built/filled during Avdiivka operation at least 2 times. So, i would estimate its losses ratio at like 120-140% its initial stuff
...or higher... the problem is that they do not have computer-supported administration, and have lost the list of original complement already back in March 2022.
He has a russian pronunciation and has a russian point of view, not independent. I think it's quite hard to name him an independent person. So he's a low-quality source, but maybe he has something interesting.
Petr, why dont you sod off somewhere else if you dont like reading.
You really can't write something smarter? I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion. And from one old video that I saw about 5 days ago, this information really cannot be found out.
ооо а какие ты телеграм-каналы читаешь?)) Варгонзо, два майора и т.д. Так у вас там победы одни.
Yes, I'm reading that too. But I'm happy to be educated on what the right ones to read are.
Yeah, hehe: 🤑...entirely incomprehensible that I've got better contacts to the ZSU than the VSRF.
Who would have ever thought, eh? 🙄
From the written speech, it is difficult to tell if the answer is sarcasm or if you mean it. I assume the first version.
I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion.
If the answer was not sarcasm and you have good sources for the correction at ZSU, then that changes the situation.
'Sarcasm'?
Really, no idea where do you come to such thoughts while reading a blog named SARCASTOSAURUS...
That's disappointing, and I was hoping you had some insider sources from ZSU :(
He already wrote in article that he have "small finger" to pull data out. Why you are so upset?
Oh, silly me. How dare I doubt.
lol you subscribe to “very serious telegram accounts” what an authority on the war you must be!
Another one like that. You have no idea what all channels (including pro-Ukrainian) and not only telegram channels (such as YB History legents and Military & History) I subscribe to, but you already judge. You will certainly recommend me some serious telegram accounts . Here with them.
well you subscribe to this very serious substack account too, maybe it is the most serious of them all and can publish percentages!
Thanks for the updates Tom. Very tough days ahead. I hear the Robotyne front is getting hotter as well with the Russians pushing forward.
....yup, and local drone-drivers of the ZSU have lots of fun plinking them there.
It's an entirely different battlefield in southern Zaporizhzhya, than this in Donbass.
Why Ukraine could not concentrate a lot of drones ( like they did in Krynky ) and push orcs out of Avdiivka?
It's not just about concentrating, it's also about having more drones than the enemy and there's more (much more) of the enemy in Avdiivka than in Krynky.
The bandwidth for drones' radio is limited - they would interdict each other's radios.
In Krynky the drones were sent over Dnipro from a long line of the western shore, thus operators were not crowded. In Avdiivka the defenders were crowded, and there were too many attackers + buildings block radio waves + heavy bombing. The Russians also were likely to use EW from all the sides.
Drones are an effective weapon that do a lot of damage and drone operators went without sleep to support the troops but they are not artillery. The Russians presented massed targets, which is perfect for artillery, but there were more targets than drones could hope to account for. You also have to consider the limited number of operating frenquencies that both sides were using and electronic warfare.
In terms of numbers of troops on both sides, Krynky as a battle is about 1% the size of Avdiivka.
Thank you, Tom, again, for continuing to bring us your invaluable updates. Not sure how you do it with everything else going on, but thank you. Between Stefan and you, you guys keep my faith in honest reporting.
Tom: first of all, as always, thank you!
What’s your take on the situation with munitions, most importantly, 155-mm? To what extent Ukrainian supply is limited by funding holdup in the US, and to what extent those munitions are simply non-existent, not manufactured yet? Do you have any ideas about how many are still held in the warehouses in the US, Europe, and other Ukraine-friendly places?
Sorry, no precise idea, right now. Don's already working on all of these questions: hope, he might find the answers on time for his next Weekly.
Deliveries from Serbia to Ukraine of shells is almost everyday.
Ukraine Antonov keep landing and taking of almost everyday from Serbia.
Just to be clear: this is very bad!
Nothing to like!
Peace should be achieved as soon as possible.
Czechs can get and deliver 500k 155mm and 300k 122mm shels in weeks not years (we do have some contacts arround the world), but it need funding. There are negotiations with US, Germany and Sweeden (probably not France - they are focusing on increase of their production to the "amazing" level of 3k 155mm a month and thats why they do block purchase from outside of EU - "clever and lifes of ZSU soldiers and UA civilians saving"). https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-pavel-cesko-muze-ukrajine-v-radu-tydnu-dodat-delostreleckou-munici-40461078
Its time to act and stop the war (finish it), politics might wait for the time people stop dying. So you can support by pushing to your governments
In case to want to support directly you might donate directly, in case you dont know how https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/
Yes, I've read about this in Ukrainian press, and am very grateful for the Czech people and personally President Pavel for this effort. If money is really the only issue here, I hope money will be found, and quickly.
And yes, I know how to donate money for Ukrainian war efforts, and do it. Thank you!
Thank you, Tom, for the hard work and for providing what information you can credibly find and assess about a situation in which the dust is still settling. I appreciate reading it.
Every good faith reader should understand that the information is very fluid, and that nothing comes with an iron-clad guarantee at this early phase in trying to make sense of the results. It is an iterative process.
Exactly! I would just like to add that the situation is not "pleasant", but my impression is that it's not critical. I mean, let's look at the history. Did the fall of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk lead to the fall of Siversk? No, it didn't. Did the fall of Bakhmut lead to the fall of Kramatorsk/Slovyansk? No, it didn't. So, hopefully, the fall of Avdiivka will not lead to a collapse of a larger section of the battlefield. Again, it is certainly not good news, and the pressure in Donbas will further increase, but the war is still far from being lost!
Really? Accurate description of Russian losses by units yet no idea on Ukrainian ones!! Wow
бот
If he had some numbers on Ukrainian losses, and other stuff that is not known to public, dont you think it would be smart to hold back the information, and not feed it to the russians?
There are so many layers of sarcasm that I don't actually understand what is the information.
I'm serious, not trolling.
I can't tell what this article is saying. Was it really bad for Ukraine? Just bad? Or maybe it was worth it?
Maybe you could have a small section which summarizes the information straight, with no editorializing?
Only time can give answers to your questions. Tom just laid out the facts known to him at the moment, without judgment or deep analysis. Thanks to him for that too.
Ah come on: I've been much more sarcastic a number of times. There's more than enough info if you read carefully.
Thanks for your efforts trying to give some clarity to this chaotic situation. I’m not surprised that some who believe that Russian forces cannot be defeated are skeptical of the report. So much winning!
This is most sarco-chaotic informations by Tom in last month that hardly is anything clear so far.
Thank you for this valuable report.
Ignore the haters.
You are doing good work which most of your readers appreciate.
It's a pity that you have to put up with some of the drivel people write about your invaluable contributions to our understanding of this atrocious war. I'm sure that you won't be deterred - in fact you may be encouraged. There are more than a few of us who assign high value to your work. Thank you. Keep it up.
Got lucky, I read through and my feelings are not hurt 😉.
Many thanks for deviating from your rule. I personally find this assessments very helpful and find no reason to be mad at you 🤷🏻♂️
"pulls the finger"
Even if its just 2 km on 2 km area - I still dont wanna give an inch to orcs.
If West gave Ukraine artillery ammunition - Avdiivka would be a graveyard for orcs
History isn’t familiar with “if” word. Situation is as it is: Avdiivka is out of UA control. Hope, one day blue-yellow flag is to replace “aqua fresh”.
Zsu had no chance to keep Avdiivka front in such circumstances. It was pure hell.
1st Sloviansk brigade was (re)built/filled during Avdiivka operation at least 2 times. So, i would estimate its losses ratio at like 120-140% its initial stuff
...or higher... the problem is that they do not have computer-supported administration, and have lost the list of original complement already back in March 2022.
Thus, nobody can say.
Thanks, Tom, now I can imagine what a bloody mess was the last hours for the battle for Avidiivka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waSiZK3NV9I
He has a russian pronunciation and has a russian point of view, not independent. I think it's quite hard to name him an independent person. So he's a low-quality source, but maybe he has something interesting.